July 26, 2021

“AMLO” no longer has the elbow room to transform Mexico

“The president of the poor took a slap in the face”, loose Antonio Gallegos, sitting on the terrace in the center of Mexico City, in reaction to the legislative and local mega-squabble of Sunday, June 6 in Mexico. « You are one fifi [petit-bourgeois] who is afraid of losing their privileges », retorts his friend Alejandro Tavera, unconditional of the center-left president, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (“AMLO”). The exchange between these forties around a glass, one half empty, the other half full, reflects the mixed results of the midterm elections. “AMLO” saves its reform project. But he no longer has the elbow room to achieve it.

Article reserved for our subscribers Read also In Mexico, mixed electoral victory for “AMLO”

The interested party said to himself ” happy ! “, repeating the word three times, Monday, June 7, the day after the largest poll in the history of the country, with more than 2,000 municipal, regional and legislative mandates at stake. However, the victory seems bittersweet for “AMLO” : most voters confirmed their confidence in the president. Its National Regeneration Movement (Morena) remains the leading party in the country, with extensive territorial power. On the other hand, its legislative room for maneuver has been reduced.

Morena no longer has her comfortable absolute majority in the Chamber of Deputies. With 35% of the vote, the young party of “AMLO” loses 55 of the 253 seats of deputies acquired since its triumphant victory in the presidential election (53% of the vote) of 2018. Morena nevertheless remains in the majority in Congress, thanks to its allies, the Workers’ Party (PT) and the Green Party (PVEM). Their coalition now has 280 of the 500 legislative seats, up from 333 previously. The trio already control the Senate, whose seats were not to be filled on June 6.

“Bet won for the opposition”

“The apparent good humor ofAMLO mask his embarrassment badly, comments political scientist Ricardo Uvalle. Of course, its absolute majority with its allies allows it to keep control of the budget vote. But he loses his qualified majority [deux tiers des sièges], necessary for the future constitutional reforms of its “4T”. “ The “4T” is the nickname given to its ambitious “fourth transformation of Mexico”, after the independence of 1810, the reform (1858 to 1961, establishing secularism) and the revolution of 1910. This nationalist project breaks with the patronage regime and corrupt, established for seventy-one years by the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI, center) until 2000, then maintained by the political alternation of the National Action Party (PAN, right), before the return to power of the PRI in 2012 to 2018. The flagship axis of “AMLO” remains the fight against poverty, which affects half of Mexicans, victims, according to him, of “Neoliberal policies” previous governments.

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